Minister of Science Mtg 2017-07-26 / archived / read-only

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• Ensure all publications are properly peer reviewed and approved by CSIRO;
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• Subject our science to robust peer review and be open about areas of uncertainty and gaps in our knowledge;
• Subject research to impartial, rigorous and formal peer review;
• Use the best available science and scientific techniques;
• CSIRO describing its peer-review approach Part 1
• CSIRO describing its peer-review approach Part 2

Response by Marcott et al. « RealClimate Q: What do paleotemperature reconstructions show about the temperature of the last 100 years?

A: Our global paleotemperature reconstruction includes a so-called “uptick” in temperatures during the 20th-century. However, in the paper we make the point that this particular feature is of shorter duration than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging procedure, and that it is based on only a few available paleo-reconstructions of the type we used.

Thus, the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions.

Our primary conclusions are based on a comparison of the longer term paleotemperature changes from our reconstruction with the well-documented temperature changes that have occurred over the last century, as documented by the instrumental record. Although not part of our study, high-resolution paleoclimate data from the past ~130 years have been compiled from various geological archives, and confirm the general features of warming trend over this time interval (Anderson, D.M. et al., 2013, Geophysical Research Letters, v. 40, p. 189-193; http://www.agu.org/journals/pip/gl/2012GL054271-pip.pdf).

• Post bomb period data for 14C in atmospheric carbon dioxide from seven measurement stations are available in small samples up to and including the year 2007. They do not support the theory that dilution by 14C-free fossil fuel emissions is responsible for falling levels of 14C in atmospheric CO2. We find instead that the observed decline of 14C in atmospheric CO2 is consistent with the exponential decay of bomb 14C. We also find that the attribution to fossil fuel emissions of the pre-bomb dilution of 14C in atmospheric CO2 in the period 1900-1950 found by Stuiver and Quay in tree-ring data is inconsistent with total emissions and changes in atmospheric CO2 during that period. We conclude that the data for 14C in atmospheric CO2 do not serve as empirical evidence that the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 since the Industrial Revolution is attributable to fossil fuel emissions.

• Surface CO2 concentrations from GEOS-5 / GMAO / NASA on 2017-07-16 19:00 [Source] [img: Surface_CO2-v1.jpg]

  Varies from black - 349ppm in northern China where human activity might not be small to white - 442ppm in the south of the Dem Rep of the Congo where human activity seems to be small. The CO2 concentrations vary far more than the Scripps station data might suggest. At the surface, CO2 does not look like a well mixed gas. There seems no correlation between areas of human activity and high CO2 concentrations.

• [img: CO2vsEmissions.jpg] Apparently CO2 did not increase from 1890-1900 or from 1940-1950. The human activities during these periods did not cause CO2 increase so why assume that human activities cause CO2 increase in other periods? Human emissions apparently dropped from 1979 to 1981 and were flatish from 1997 to 2002 but CO2 increased due to some other cause. Human emissions decreased in 2009 yet the level of CO2 in the atmosphere increased. Correlation is very weak evidence for causation, certainly not Policy Quality Evidence.

• This graph combines the 2 CSIRO emission graphs and adds Atmospheric growth calculated from GISS CO2 concentration data and Land sink calculated as the residual as per the post 1959 data. [img: CO2_emissions.jpg] It would appear that "nature" (land and ocean sinks) has apparently absorbed more than it has emitted since 1850. We will demonstrate that neither the land nor ocean sink data is based on empirical measurements.
• The ocean sink rate is from models and the land sink is assumed to be the residual of the other data. This does not appear to be Policy Quality data.

  • This source reveals that none of these graphs are the direct result of measurements.

    Emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (uncertainty of ±5% for a ± 1 sigma confidence level) 1959-2010 estimates for fossil fuel combustion are from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. 2010 and 2012 estimates are based on energy statistics published by BP (data in red in Column B). 2010 and 2012 estimates are based on energy statistics published by BP (data in red in Column B). Emissions from cement production were estimated by CDIAC based on cement production data from the US Geological Survey.

    The atmospheric CO2 growth rate (variable uncertainty averaging 0.18 GtC/yr during 1980-2011) is estimated directly from atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements, and provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL). 1959-1980 are based on Mauna Loa and South Pole stations as observed by the CO2 Program at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. 1980-2012 are global averages estimated from multiple stations by NOAA/ESRL.

    The ocean sink (uncertainty of ±0.5 GtC/yr) was estimated a combination of global ocean biogeochemistry models.

    The land sink (uncertainty of ±0.8 GtC/yr on average) was estimated from the residual of the other budget terms: landsink = fossilfuel + landusechange - atmgrowth - oceansink.

• Post 1959 data from CDIAC. Here the Land sink data comes directly from CDIAC whose documentation defines it as the residual of the other data. The Recent Atmospheric Growth series is not heavily smoothed as was the post 1850 data this implies much more variance in the Land Sink data. Recent Atmospheric Growth is calculated from changes in atmospheric CO2 levels. [img: CO2emissionsrecent.jpg] The Land sink data is not plausible. It records a change from -1 Gt/yr to +13Gt/yr in only 3 years. Surely this would have attracted some comment by observant scientists if it actually occurred.

• The mid to high northern latitude CO2 measuring stations record large regular seasonal swings of up to 15ppm in 6-8 months. The flows of CO2 in GigaTonnes required to achieve this are enormous. The values depending on assumptions concerning mixing and volume of the atmosphere effected but monthly flows can be in the range of 400-600 Gt/yr. These flows dwarf all the estimates of human emissions, land and ocean sinks etc. If these flows are even slightly temperature dependent then much could be explained.

  [img: LaJollaCO2.jpg]

• Harries 2001 Fig 1a - The empirical data from the satellites [img: Harries2001Fig_1.jpg] "Erratum: Increase in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997

  JOHN E. HARRIES, HELEN E. BRINDLEY, PRETTY J. SAGOO & RICHARD J. BANTGES

  Nature 410, 355; 2001

  In Fig. 1a of this paper, the labels for the two curves were inadvertently switched. The grey curve represents IMG and the black curve represents IRIS."

• Example of calculated radiance changes upward at top of atmosphere due to CO2 changes, all else remaining constant. [img: ModTran_spectra.jpg] Indicates the importance of the 600-700 -cm band.

• NOAA OLR at TOA for the Harries Lat/Long box averaged for the same months (April, May, June) [img: HarriesBoxOLR-AMJ.jpg] Careful choice of end points would allow increasing or decreasing trends. The Harries end of 1997 was a moderate low year. A more rigorous approach would be to analyse the whole available time series.

• NOAA OLR for the Harries box, seasonally adjusted, shows no significant trend in the Outgoing Longwave Radiation leaving the top of the atmosphere. [img: HarriesBoxOLR-SA.jpg]
• See Appendix: About the NOAA Gridded OLR data

• Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity (60 papers)
• 1970s Cooling(285 papers)
• No Net Warming During 20th (21st) Century (10 papers)
• Modern Climate Is In Phase With Natural Variability (20 papers)
• Scientific Papers Now Forecasting Global Cooling In The Coming Decades (31 papers)
• CO2 Greenhouse Effect NOT Primary Explanation For Climate Change (17 papers)

• Sun Drives Climate (100+ papers)
• Solar Influence On Climate (80 papers)
• Skeptic Papers 2016 (500 papers)
  • Skeptic Papers 2016 part 1 Solar Influence On Climate (133 papers) Natural Oceanic/Atmospheric Oscillations (45 papers) Natural Ozone Variability and Climate (3 papers) Weak Influence of Humans CO2 on climate (11 papers) Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity (4 papers) Modern Climate in Phase with Natural Variability (17 papers) Cloud Aerosol Climate Influence (14 papers) Volcanic Tectonic Climate Forcing (10 papers)
  • Skeptic Papers 2016 part 2 I. Lack Of Anthropogenic/CO2 Signal In Sea Level Rise/Mid-Holocene Sea Levels Meters Higher (34) II. Warmer Holocene Climate, Non-Hockey Sticks (41) III. No Net Regional Warming Since Early- Mid-20th Century (15) IV. Abrupt, Degrees-Per-Decade Natural Global Warming (D-O Events) (8) V. The Uncooperative Cryosphere: Polar Ice Sheets, Sea Ice (34) VI. Ocean Acidification? (14) VII. Natural Climate Catastrophes – Without CO2 Changes (4) VIII. Recent Cooling In The North Atlantic (3)
  • Skeptic Papers 2016 part 3 I. Failing/Failed Renewable Energy, Climate Policies (10) II. Climate Model Unreliability/Biases and the Pause (34) III. Elevated CO2 Greens Planet, Raises Crop Yields (10) IV. Wind Turbines, Solar Utilities Endangering Wildlife (7) V. Less Extreme, Unstable Weather With Warming (15) VI. Heat Not Hazardous To Polar Bears, Humans (3) VII. No Increasing Trends In Intense Hurricanes (3) VIII. No Increasing Trends In Drought Frequency, Severity (7) IX. Urban Surfaces Cause (Artificial) Warming (4) X. ‘Settled’ Science Dismantled (3) XI. Natural CO2, Methane Sources Out-Emit Humans (3) XII. Fires, Anthropogenic Climate Change Disconnect (5) XIII. Miscellaneous (4) XIV. Scientists: We Don’t Know (4)
• Lack Of Anthropogenic/CO2 Signal In Sea Level Rise (34 papers)
• Skeptic Papers 2014 (242 papers)

• Did you consider these peer-reviewed papers?
• If not, why not?
• If yes, on what grounds did you dismiss each paper?
• If you rely on the IPCC, do you know whether the IPCC considered these papers?
• If yes, where is it documented?

• Our response to Marcott 2013 is entirely based on the work of Steve McIntyre
• Marcott's PhD thesis used the same 73 proxies and has no uptick [img: PhD_thesis.jpg]
• Using same data as the thesis but adjusting the dating of the core tops as per the quoted paper [img: PhDthesisAdjusted.jpg]
• McIntyre suspected that the new uptick would probably be caused by changes to the Alkenone processing. Plotting the Alkenone points, he found that the uptick resulted from only one point. [img: Alkenone_Stack.jpg] 1920-1940 up tick is an extreme outlier

• Effects of redating core tops on Alkenone reconstructions Core tops are assumed to be 1950 AD unless otherwise indicated in original publication.

  However, something more than this is going on. In some cases, Marcott et al have re-dated core tops indicated as 0 BP in the original publication. (Perhaps with justification, but this is not reported.) In other cases, core tops have been assigned to 0 BP even though different dates have been reported in the original publication. In another important case (of YAD061 significance as I will later discuss), Marcott et al ignored a major dating caveat of the original publication.

  [img: EffectsofMarcott'sredatingofcoretops.jpg] The uptick is a result of the redating of a few core tops

• <type 'netCDF4._netCDF4.Dataset'> root group (NETCDF4 data model, file format HDF5): Conventions: CF-1.6 Title: HIRS OLR CDR Product Ver02Rev02-1 Source: NOAA Archive of HIRS L1B data from TIROS-N Series and MetOp-A/B Reference: doi:10.1175/2007JTECHA989.1 doi:10.1175/1520-0426(1989)0060706:ATFEOL2.0.CO;2 doi:10.1175/1520-0426(1994)0110357:VOATFE2.0.CO;2 History: 2011-08-08T00:00:00Z - 1979-2012 time series produced using HIRS OLR CDR Production Package v2.2; 2017-03-04T12:12:52Z - time period updated with HIRS OLR CDR Production Package v2.2.1 Comment: none MetadataConventions: Unidata Dataset Discovery v1.0, CF-1.6 StandardNameVocabulary: CF Standard Name Table (v26, 26 November 2013) Id: olr-monthlyv02r02-1197901201702.nc NamingAuthority: gov.noaa.ncdc DateCreated: 2017-03-04T12:12:52Z DateModified: 2017-03-04T12:12:52Z License: Users must cite this dataset when used as a source. No other constraints on data access or use. Summary: The product is the outgoing longwave radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere derived from HIRS radiance observations onboard NOAA TIROS-N series and MetOp satellites. The OLR retrieval is performed using multispectral regression models (Ellingson et al., 1989). The CDR processing includes HIRS radiance calibration, OLR inter-satellite adjustments, and temporal integral with OLR diurnal models (Lee et al., 2007). The final product is mapped into 2.5 by 2.5 degree equal angle grid (144x72, total 10368 grids over the globe). The product is for monthly mean value. Keywords: Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Radiation > Outgoing Longwave Radiation KeywordsVocabulary: NASA Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Earth Science Keywords, Version 8.0.0.0 CdmDataType: Grid Project: NOAA Monthly OLR TCDR ProcessingLevel: NOAA Level 3 CreatorName: Hai-Tien Lee CreatorUrl: http://cicsmd.umd.edu/ CreatorEmail: lee@umd.edu Institution: UMD/ESSIC > Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland GeospatialLatMin: -90.0 GeospatialLatMax: 90.0 GeospatialLonMin: 0.0 GeospatialLonMax: 360.0 GeospatialLatUnits: degree GeospatialLatResolution: 2.5 GeospatialLonUnits: degree GeospatialLonResolution: 2.5 TimeCoverageStart: 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z TimeCoverageEnd: 2017-03-01T:00:00:00Z TimeCoverageDuration: P458M TimeCoverageResolution: P1M ContributorName: Hai-Tien Lee ContributorRole: principalinvestigator Acknowledgment: This project was supported in part by a grant from the NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) Program for Satellites CdrProgram: NOAA Climate Data Record Program for satellites CdrVariable: olr SoftwareVersionId: gov.noaa.ncdc:/svn-repos/rsad/CDR/HIRS-outgoing-LW-radiation/tags/Ver02Rev02-1 MetadataLink: gov.noaa.ncdc:C00809 ProductVersion: Ver02Rev02-1 Platform: TIROS-N > Television Infrared Observation Satellite - N, NOAA-6 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 6, NOAA-7 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 7, NOAA-8 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 8, NOAA-9 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 9, NOAA-10 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 10, NOAA-11 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 11, NOAA-12 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 12, NOAA-14 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 14, NOAA-15 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 15, NOAA-16 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 16, NOAA-17 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 17, NOAA-18 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 18, NOAA-19 > National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration - 19, MetOp-A > Meteorological Operational Polar Satellite - A, MetOp-B > Meteorological Operational Polar Satellite - B Sensor: HIRS-2 > High Resolution Infra-red Sounder/2, HIRS-2I > High Resolution Infra-red Sounder/2I, HIRS-3 > High Resolution Infra-red Sounder/3, HIRS-4 > High Resolution Infra-red Sounder/4 SpatialResolution: 2.5 by 2.5 degree equal angle Dimensions(Sizes): time(458), lat(72), lon(144), bnds(2) Variables(Dimensions): float32 olr(time,lat,lon), float32 lon(lon), float32 lat(lat), float32 time(time), float32 lonbounds(lon,bnds), float32 latbounds(lat,bnds), float32 timebounds(time,bnds)

• We have concerns with the Global Historical Climate Network which is the basis for the land component of all the major thermometer datasets.
  • Most stations in the GHCN were weather stations with sufficient accuracy to comment on a daily range of 20 degrees. A climate station with accuracy to measure a trend of 1 degree per century is quite different. The difference in procedures and maintenance required is immense. We can, if required, table the work of Dr Bill Johnston into the quality of BoM stations.
  • Based on Soon, Connelly and Connelly 2015, some GHCN stations can be categorised as fully rural or fully urban stations of long standing ( >800 monthly readings). There is a big difference between them which could be explained by the Urban Heat Island effect not being adequately offset. More of the world's land surface is rural than urban, so we would be more confident in the GHCN if the rural / urban differences were much smaller.
    • [img: FullyRuralUrbanand_HadCRUT-1.jpg]
  • We agree on the need to sometimes adjust the raw data but would be more convinced if the physical reason for each adjustment were documented. An automatic software homogenization process may conveniently address the 7,000 stations but we are not convinced that describing it in a paper that is subject to the same quality of peer-review as Marcott 2013 is adequate to eliminate the perception of bias.
    • Adjustments made to Alice Springs entirely account for the rising trend. [img: Alice_springs.jpg]
  • HadCRUT4 combines the land station data into 5x5 degree grid cells. Each grid cell exceeds 550km in latitude and declines in longitude from 550km at the equator to near zero at the poles.
    • The fraction of land grid cells containing at least one station approached 40% in the 1970s-1980s but has now declined to 30%. The average number of stations in a land grid cell exceeded 3 from 1960 to 1980 but is now down to 1.5 A particularly sharp decline in stations occurred around 1990. [img: GHCN_coverage-1.jpg]
    • The various latitude bands are not uniformly covered with the north temperate band having more than twice the coverage of the south temperate band. [img: GHCNcoverageby_band.jpg]
• The ocean temperature component for some of the major thermometer datasets comes from HadSST3. The ocean data has few fixed "stations", much comes from ships in the form of "observations".
  • Since 1980 60% of ocean grid cells have been covered but in the past this has been 25%. The average observations per cell has risen sharply since 2000 but has been very low before 1950. [img: HadSST3_coverage-1.jpg]
    • Since 1980 coverage has approach 80% except within 30 degrees of the poles where it is less than 30% [img: HadSST3coverageby_band.jpg]
• It is currently cooler than the last 10,000 years. The slight recent uptick is insignificant in comparison to past rises that have occurred before human emissions.
  • Temperature series for 10,000 years with less than 50 years per sample. All show general declining temperatures over the 10,000 years. [img: Holocene_Temps-1.jpg]

• The lower troposphere temperature patterns are not the same as the surface patterns. While the satellite measurements of the lower troposphere are very convenient they do introduce another step in the calculation of a global temperature while eliminating many other steps.
• [img: NullSchool_Surface.jpg]
• [img: NullSchool_LT.jpg]

• Pacific Ocean heat content during the Holocene [img: Heat_content.jpg]