CSIRO Empirical evidence that humans cause climate change / archived / read-only

 
  • Introduction
    • Senator Malcolm Roberts in his maiden speech asserted that CSIRO had no empirical evidence that human emissions of CO2 caused any significant global warming.
    • A meeting was arranged between CSIRO and Senator Roberts' staff where CSIRO presented their empirical evidence.
    • This document is a review of that empirical evidence.
    • The general public should be able to understand the top levels. Scientific discussion should be in the deeper levels.
  • CSIRO Ā Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas.
    • The natural greenhouse effect makes the planet habitable: the average temperature of the earth is 33°C warmer than it would be in the absence of greenhouse gases.
      • Derivation of the 33 deg C
        • The value of 33 deg. C represents the difference between the observed average surface temperature of the Earth, and the estimated surface temperature if there was no atmosphere.

          The 33 deg. C of surface warming is not actually a measure of the greenhouse warming – it represents the balance between TWO competing effects: a greenhouse warming effect of about 60 deg. C (the so-called ā€œpure radiative equilibriumā€ case), and a convective cooling effect of about 30 deg. C. When these two are combined, we get the real-world observed ā€œradiative-convective equilibriumā€ case.

          This has been known since at least 1964 (Manabe and Strickler, 1964). It was also discussed in Dick Lindzen’s 1990 paper, Some Coolness Regarding Global Warming, Roy Spencer

      • Calculations show that about 9 C of this warming is due to carbon dioxide [John Nicol-private communication]
        • The rest of the 33 C of warming for the ordinary greenhouse effect, comes from the cooling by wind (conduction) and of course over the oceans and other water by evaporation.
        • One may avoid the term ā€œgreenhouseā€ since there is a huge difference between what is happening and the workings of a glass house, but there is absolutely no doubt that introducing even about 40 ppmv (c.f. present level of 400 ppmv) will also add about 9 C to the earth’s temperature (Teff) just as the 400 ppmv does now.
        • The presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does contribute (I believe from careful calculations) about 9 degrees C towards the defined 33 C, at which we enjoy an earth, warmer than the easily determined 255 K of an earth in thermodynamic equilibrium with the sun. (Note: The 288 K which is the ā€œmeasuredā€ temperature, Teff, is actually a measurement of the average intensity of radiation from the earth’s surface. It is obtained by adding the fourth power of the temperature (T^4) at every point where the measurements are made (and used by HADCRUT, NASA, GISS etc…) over the earth, then dividing by the number of sampled points and taking the fourth root to obtain Teff (IPCC). If you take the real linear ā€œaverageā€, the usual ā€œmeanā€ temperature, you get something like 260 K. (For the bare earth for which the 255 K Teff applies, the mean temperature is only a freezing [liquid nitrogen like], 180 K, because the calculation of course includes the assumption fro an airless earth, that one side of the earth is cooled to zero, as are the poles at the 90 degree angle to the sun. However, this 180 K is a measure of the mean energy of the earth, as is the mean temperatures which would come out at about 265 K for the earth as we know it with a warming atmosphere. These lower temperatures are a measure of the actual energy trapped in the atmosphere and the earth whereas Teff depends on the temperature and also on how the temperature is distributed across the globe – changing the distribution can change the value of Teff upwards, even though the amount of energy on earth may have fallen. I believe this may well be the case for the much lauded El Nino peaks which occur when some large areas of the earth warm by up to 4 C while other areas are cooler. So as soon as you introduce a bit of air, even with CO2, you will get some redistribution of heat from the tropics and a much warmer earth. (BTW, Jack Barrett, in spite of his findings regarding the non-event for CO2, believes that without some CO2, we would have a ā€snow-ballā€ earth.
    • The laws of physics and direct measurements confirm that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas.
      • Which particular laws of physics? CSIRO did not specify any laws.
        • Joseph Fourier (1827) Memoire sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces planetaires".
          • Fourier, in 1824/1827, was writing about thermal conduction and the applicability of his Analytical Theory of Heat to transparent fluids such as the air in hotboxes and the atmosphere. Neither his 1824 nor 1827 papers have anything to do with the greenhouse effect. The transition from radiation-dominant to contact dominant heat transfer regimes within materials in thermal contact, mentioned by Fourier, has nothing to do with backradiation heating, however similar it may seem on a superficial reading. Backradiation heating would, in fact, make Fourier's Law impossible because heat can't dissipate if it can simply be relayed up the thermal gradient as often as it is relayed down the thermal gradient. This also neglects the fact that Fourier's Law defines the total heat transfer including radiative transfer, contact transfer, Fermi Gas flow, electron swaps and any imponderables such as the odd bit of undetectable backradiation.
          • The applicability of Fourier's Law to thermal gradients in liquids and gases, including the atmosphere, was the point of Fourier (1824, see p. 166) and Fourier (1827, see p. 600) if taken in the context of the range of publications to which he refers. If the greenhouse effect is taken as not contradicting or otherwise violating Fourier's Law, why not simply dispense with the guesswork and use Fourier's Law to model the behaviour of heat in the atmosphere?
        • Svante Arrhenius (1896) "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Earth". Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. Arrhenius' greenhouse law reads as follows:
          if the quantity of carbonic acid [CO2] increases in geometric progression, the augmentation of the temperature will increase nearly in arithmetic progression. This means that adding equal quantities of CO2 results in ever decreasing response.
          • Arrhenius' conception of the greenhouse effect is neither mathematically consistent nor, in his own estimation, testable by any practical or available means. Although Robert Wood disagreed and went ahead with a test of his own, an untestable theory is unscientific.
      • Which direct measurements? No references provided.
        • John Tyndall (1872) "Contributions to molecular physics in the domain of radiant heat"
          • Are you referring to experiments done in the 1800s with CO2 in a bottle in the laboratory, which were before quantum theory and high resolution spectroscopy?
          • Why are you confident that the bottle adequately represents the 62 different types of atomic collisions in the atmosphere between all the major and minor gases present?
            • [img: Point_1-Reactions.jpg] From Atomic and Space Physics, Green and Wyatt, Addison Wesley
          • Why are you confident that the bottle adequately represents all the interactions by conduction, convection, radiation and latent heat that occur in the atmosphere?
        • Jack Barrett (1995) CO2 is expected to increase global temperature, but the extent of the warming and the mechanism of the warming are still debatable,
          • At the DECHEMA colloquium, held in Frankfurt on 11th Oct, 2001, Hug and Barrett gave papers that expressed doubts about the details of the manner that spectroscopy has been applied by members of the IPCC in coming to their conclusions about future climate change. IPCC proponents Bakan, Birk and Hollmann opposed the views.
          • Barrett and Hug's conclusions
          • The mechanism of global warming must be defined in a better manner so that all relevant processes are represented.
          • It must be recognized that Kirchhoff’s law applies only to systems in thermal equilibrium.
          • The proper effects of line broadening must be recognized. That line broadening occurs at all indicates that collisional processes are important.
          • The value of the atmospheric sensitivity given by the IPCC seems to be too large. If the IPCC value for atmospheric sensitivity is exaggerated by a factor of about four, the predicted increase in temperature for a doubling of carbon dioxide will be too small to be discernible against the background of natural variability of the climate.
          • The ignoring of the spectral effects of water vapour seems to be the reason for the exaggeration of the sensitivity.
          • The failure of models to settle the sign of the water vapour feedback induces doubts about the whole process of modelling at the present time.
          • The concept of local thermodynamic equilibrium is given different interpretations and leads to errors in applications of theory to the atmospheric problem.
          • The kinetics of the carbon cycle needs further consideration. If the CO2 content of the atmosphere is not going to reach double that of the pre-industrial era, the whole of the IPCC approach to future climate change is in doubt.
      • In the absence of any definitive experiment to prove the greenhouse effect, where is the chain of logical reasoning via the laws of physics that defines the greenhouse effect?
        • What special definition, if any, of the Greenhouse Effect is used by the CSIRO and what is the key, testable, physical mechanism which both drives this special variation of the greenhouse effect and distinguishes it from the greenhouse effect, as it is more widely understood, as well as from other thermodynamic processes such as thermal conduction and the influence of heat capacity on the process of thermal conduction?
    • We will not contest the use of the term greenhouse effect but are unaware of any evidence that the atmosphere behaves similarly to a physical greenhouse.
      • The Greenhouse effect, as a product of back radiation heating against the thermal gradient and in violation of Fourier's Law, is yet to be confirmed by explicitly relevant and controlled experiment.
        • The whole "hotbox is not a planet" argument neglects the fact that experimental controls exist to remove possible alternate causes from an experiment. In this sense, a complex planetary system can be a highly inappropriate environment for an "open air" experiment because whatever results we observe could be unexpectedly influenced by any number of phenomena. We see this in the disparity between the results of Pratt and Nahle who, separately, used thin films for the transparent media of their control enclosures. I have, by the way, confirmed both Pratt's and Nahle's results, in this case, noting that a little wind made all the difference. So, when we look at a mechanism, we must isolate the mechanism itself and compare with a control. This is what makes Wood's experiment so very relevant to this question.
        • It is commonly argued that hotboxes get saturated by atmospheric IR and, in fact, this argument was first made in Abbot's 1909 attempted rebuttal of Wood(1909). Ignoring the differences of emission spectra between carbon dioxide and glass, backradiation heating still predicts that the bottom of the control will receive measurably less radiation than the total radiation received at the bottom of the test enclosure.

          While the control gets the 1. full measure of visible radiation 2. Initial backradiation from the atmosphere 3. plus the spit series backradiation of infrared atmospheric back radiation exchanged with the atmosphere.

          the IR-absorbing transparent medium for the test enclosure does not present a complete barrier to atmospheric IR-backradiation. So the test enclosure gets the: 1. full measure of visible radiation 2. Initial backradiation of the IR-absorbing transparent test medium 3. split series backradiation of test medium backradiation exchanged with the test medium 4. split series backradiation of atmospheric backradiation exchanged with the atmosphere

          In the event that there is a greenhouse effect which, by definition, is based on the unconfirmed mechanism of backradiation heating, the test enclosure will always receive more radiation than the control enclosure and, all other things being equal, there would never be a circumstance where the control enclosure is warmer than the test enclosure unless a completely different mechanism, such as optical refrigeration, is in play.

        • Regarding the application of the Stefan Equation to the determination of surface temperature from incoming radiation (thereby eliminating emissivity questions that apply to outgoing radiation temperature): the presence of a thermal gradient alters the process greatly and, further, raises the question of where the mean equivalent absorbing surface exists, relative to the thermal gradient. This is because the radiation, measured as heat flux across a discreet surface area is actually distributed throughout the entire volume spanned by the thermal gradient arising from the radiation in question. And, because the atmosphere acts as a heat reservoir during the day (with the exception of carbon dioxide and water which leak a considerable amount of heat out to space) we can expect temperatures to build beyond simplistically calculated norms at pressures above that of the mean equivalent absorbing surface (as opposed to the crustal surface, the tropopause, the stratopause, the mesopause or the thermopause for that matter).
        • This is just to demonstrate that, on the subject of terrestrial temperatures, there are other, more parsimonious approaches which also happen to fit the facts without introducing unnecessary hobgoblins.
      • The bottom line is that anything, which cannot be consistently and independently quantified or confirmed by rigorously empirical methods, is scientifically inadmissible.
      • What is the greenhouseness of a material as a function of thermal conductivity and heat capacity?
        • If there is such a thing as a "greenhouse material" then there must be a universally quantifiable property defining either the number of degrees kelvin or the number of watts per square metre by which the "greenhouse material" deviates from the same in a "non-greenhouse" or standard material - per watt per square metre of incoming radiation.

          The reason why there is no unification of modern greenhouse effect hypotheses or "models" is that the greenhouse effect has never been confirmed, much less subjected to the necessary process of controlled, real-world measurement and quantification to establish the existence and variation of a corresponding S.I. unit.

          Moreover, such a unit would either be a new and independent thermodynamic property in its own right or it would be a function of existing thermodynamic properties such as thermal conduction and heat capacity because -in the real world- the temperatures of materials, for any given circumstances, are dictated by the material's thermodynamic properties.

  • Accepted that CO2 is a Greenhouse Gas if that just means it absorbs long wave infra-red radiation.
  • CSIRO Ā Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased.
    • Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have increased by more than 40% since pre-industrial times
      • [img: Point_3.1.jpg]
    • CO2 concentrations have been much higher in geological timescales.
    • CO2 concentrations have fluctuated in the past 400,000 years from 190 to 300 ppm.
      • On the 400,000 year timescale is probable that CO2 would start lurching downwards relatively soon. [img: Point2Vostok_CO2b.jpg] CO2 levels have risen sharply at the end of each ice age then lurched erratically downwards until the next glaciation. Data source
      • CO2 concentration of 150 ppm is dangerously low for plant growth.
    • In the last 20,000 years, GISP2 data showed CO2 spikes similar to the last 100 years.
      • On the 20,000 year timescale, CO2 drops of up to 100 ppm do not seem unusual. [img: Point2CO2_20000.jpg] Only GISP2 showed the spikes. GISP2 data source
    • CO2 levels have increased SINCE 1800 without falling.
      • [img: Point2Post1700.jpg]
    • But it has been stated .....
      • Many of the major CO2 measuring stations are at high altitude, polar regions or on isolated islands. Some atmospheric physicists suggest that the greenhouse effect occurs mostly at low altitudes.
      • Beck asserts that CO2 concentrations at ground level differ wildly from the Mauna Loa measurements.
        • Beck said: In literature we can find more than 200 000 directly measured CO2 data since 1800 from which I have estimated the annual CO2 background averages since 1826 to 1960, the end of the measurements by chemical methods.
        • Quoting from Beck: CO2 background level and the sea surface temperature (SST) CO2 background from 1826 to 2008 shows a very good correlation ( r= 0,719 using data since 1870) to global SST (Kaplan, KNMI), with a CO2 lag of 1 year behind SST from cross correlation (maximum correlation: 0,7204). Kuo et al. 1990 derived 5-month time lag from MLO data alone compared to air temperature. [img: Point2CO2_Beck.jpg] Annual atmospheric CO2 background level from 1856 to 2008 compared to SST (Kaplan, KNMI); red line, CO2 MBL reconstruction from 1826 to 1959 (Beck 2010); CO2 1960-2008: (Mauna Loa); blue line, annual SST (Kaplan) from 1856 -2003; SST= sea surface temperature
  • CO2 levels have risen since 1800 but this benefits plants and animals.
    • We note the long tradition of research in this area by the CSIRO (e.g. Carbon Dioxide and Climate: edited G I Pearman, Australian Academy of Science 1980)
    • CSIRO Study Finds Plant Growth Surges as CO2 Levels Rise
      • Between 1982 and 2010, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere increased by 14 percent. So, their model suggested, foliage worldwide should have increased by between 5 and 10 percent. In the end, they teased out the carbon dioxide fertilization effect from all other influences and calculated that this could account for an 11 percent increase in global foliage since 1982. It could also be good news for biodiversity, and good news for food security: plants are the primary producers that feed all animals. Trees are likely to invade grasslands in the drier regions, and their deep roots are better equipped to tap groundwater and at the same time stabilize the soils.
      • Trends in foliage cover [img: Point2CO2fertilization.jpg] Source of paper Source of article <A href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/grl.50563/asset/supinfo/AuxiliaryMaterial_text02.pdf?v=1&s=9fc8fe6e17b44f88eacff2b37892443a57680cea">Image Source
    • Higher crop yields expected from increased CO2
      • [img: Point2CO2CropYields.jpg] Increase in dry weight of major crop plants when atmospheric CO2 concentrations are raised. The data presented is based on large numbers of scientific studies. <A href="http://www.co2science.org/data/plantgrowth/dry/dry_subject.php">Source
    • Changes in vegetative cover due to CO2 fertilization
      • [img: Point2CO2Vegetative.jpg] Changes in vegetative cover due to CO2 fertilization between 1982 and 2010 Donohue et al, 2013 GRL
  • CSIRO The extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere comes from human activities.
    • Rapid CO2 rises of nearly 100 ppm have occurred before fossil fuel burning.
      • [img: Point3Rapid_rises.jpg]
    • No evidence has been provided to dismiss vulcanism although the last 200 years would have to be unique in 400,000 years.
      • Looking at carbon dioxide producers, passive vulcanism is a huge producer and then we have intermittant bursts from active volcanoes when they erupt. With respect to the key difference, it is due to the continuous release of volatiles that volcanoes sitting on active magma chambers do not erupt quite so often as they might.
      • The vast majority of these volcanoes are unmonitored as far as their CO2 contribution goes
      • When volcanic CO2 emissions are considered they are not taken in statistically significant numbers nor are the statistics separated by geochemical provenance. In short, the figures we see on volcanic CO2 emissions are as serious as DeVeaux et al.'s example of Simpson's paradox; an average of altitude and population intended to make the students roll in the aisles. In short, anyone who's done more than look the other way knows the amount of CO2 produced by volcanoes is very large but, until the legwork gets done, we don't know enough to say one way or the other.
      • Volcanoes emit CO2 with a sufficiently wide range of carbon isotope compositions, that without statistically significant figures taken separately from modally distinct geochemical provenance, there's no way that the atmospheric carbon isotope composition can be used to rule out volcanoes.
      • Even passive volcanic degassing varies with time
      • We don't know nearly enough to be drawing quantifiable conclusions from what little has been actually done.
    • CSIRO Graph: Concentration and isotopic composition
      • [img: Point_3.1.jpg]
      • 3.1.1 The isotopic composition of CO2 in the atmosphere shows that the CO2 added to the atmosphere has come from burning fossil fuels.
      • [img: Point3-1IPCCCO2.jpg] <A href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publicationsand_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-3.html">Source: IPCC AR4
      • The isotopic composition of volcanogenic CO2 is effectively indistinguishable from fossil fuel CO2.
        • On the scale of atmospheric composition, the isotopic composition of volcanogenic CO2 is effectively indistinguishable from fossil fuel CO2 due to the complete lack of statistically significant carbon isotope determinations for each of the contributing volcanic and tectonic provinces. Moreover, molar oxidation estimates cannot be used to constrain volcanogenic CO2 output because such estimates neglect the fact that carbon is not the only abundant element on the planet that preferentially combines with oxygen. It is only through emission monitoring taken in statistically significant empirical samples for each volcanic province that we may calculate a scientific estimate of total worldwide volcanic CO2 emission and perhaps, with statistically significant carbon isotope data for each volcanic province, we may one day be able to distinguish volcanic and industrial CO2 contributions in the atmosphere. [link]
        • Furthermore, there is simply no established volcanic CO2 fingerprint by which we may distinguish atmospheric proportions of anthropogenic and volcanogenic contributions. This leaves us with no empirical method by which we may attribute the 20th century rise in CO2 to human energy consumption.
      • 3.1.2 The decrease in the ratio of the carbon-13 isotope (8°C)that accompanies increasing CO2 trends show that the sources are fossil fuel and land-use change.
    • CSIRO Graph: Declining oxygen concentrations
      • Changes in atmospheric oxygen concentration [img: Point_3.2-Graph-b.jpg] Burning of fuel produces carbon dioxide and consumes oxygen. Burning of fossil fuels has reduced the concentration of oxygen in the atmosphere, as well as increased the concentration of carbon dioxide. Data source
      • Cape Grim CO2 and Oxygen concentrations both plotted in parts per million. [img: Point_3.2-Graph-PJB.jpg] The CO2 increase is a relatively large increase in a tiny quantity. The Oxygen decrease is a trivial decrease in a huge quantity. Data source
      • The difference in the scales of these graphs makes the oxygen changes look significant whereas in percentage terms they are trivial.
      • Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy. We are occasionally reminded that fossil fuel burning is depleting atmospheric oxygen at a rate of almost 1000 tons per second. There are about 32 million seconds in a year, so that somewhere around 30 billion tons of O2 are being converted to CO2 annually. There are about 1,200,000 billion metric tons of O2 in the atmosphere, so we can keep burning fossil fuels at the present rate for 40,000 years before we run out of oxygen. By then, all of the world's fossil fuel supply will have long since been exhausted. For a more complete, but less detailed, discussion of this topic see Et tu 02 by Wallace Broecker.

        If we take the worlds supply of fossil fuel to be 10,000 billion metric tons of carbon, as per http://genomicscience.energy.gov/carboncycle/index.shtml and we oxidize all of it we would get about 37,000 billion metric tons of CO2, and about 27,000 billion metric tons of O2 would have been consumed. Some additional O2 would have also been consumed by oxidation of hydrogen in the (hydrocarbon) fuel, so that roughly 38,000 billion metric tons of oxygen would have been consumed. This is about 3.3 percent of the atmosphere's oxygen. Such a loss would be equivalent to increasing your elevation from sea level to about 330 meters, or about 1100 feet.

      • 3.2.1 Oxygen concentrations in the atmosphere have declined, at the rate expected from burning carbon-rich fuels.
      • Similarly the measured decline in oxygen levels, while small and in reality only ā€œa few hundred feetā€ away from sea level quantities, my calculations last night, (if correct!) confirm that it is in the right ball park as being taken out by the burning of these fuels. [John Nicol]
      • On the subject of oxygen reduction, many oxidation processes other than combustion consume oxygen
      • Monthly fluctuations of CO2 and oxygen behave differently in the Northern and Southern hemispheres
        • [img: Point3.2.1NSOxygen-b.jpg] In the Northern hemisphere monthly CO2 and oxygen levels move in opposite directions In the Southern hemisphere there is virtually no monthly CO2 fluctuation but the oxygen fluctuation is normal. CO2 is obviously not well mixed on a monthly timescale. Powerful factors are at work on the monthly scale.
    • CSIRO Graph: CO2 Sources
      • [img: Point_3.3-Graph.jpg]
      • Human emissions don't seem to have any short term effect on atmospheric CO2 levels
        • [img: CO2andEmissions.jpg] Human emissions don't seem to have any short term effect on atmospheric CO2 levels or the GISS CO2 dataset is heavily smoothed.
      • The dips in human emissions at about 1980 and 1990 are coincident with volcanic eruptions
        • [img: SourcesHumanand_Volcanos.jpg] The dips in human emissions at about 1980 and 1990 are coincident with volcanic eruptions. Why should human emissions drop on volcanic eruptions? The cynic might suspect that volcanic emissions have been subtracted from some other quantity to get human emissions.
      • Please add the outgassing from the warming oceans to this graph as none could be readily located.
      • Volcanogenic CO2 output is estimated at between 24-121 GtC/yr in this article. This dwarfs the fossil fuel and land-use changes.
      • It is encouraging to see evidence of increased energy use in developing countries as they progress to push back poverty.
      • Is the decline from land-use change after 2000 considered to be an indication of "peak farm land" usage with land being restored to parks and forest?
      • These graphs are estimates not direct measurements and were provided by the Bureau of Meteorology whose Rutherglen adjustments remain undefended.
      • Indeed, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 Satellite System is showing the strongest CO2 highs are over the South American and African rainforests and over China and some sections of ocean due to outgassing. So data from this satellite are making the graph above completely out of date as some of the rainforest highs are not human land use at all, and the ocean outgassing is not even estimated in the above graph.
      • CO2 in the atmosphere has increased as human emissions have increased (the two are correlated).
        • A Correlation is only a prerequisite to causation [link].
    • But is has been stated ......
      • This can only be based on an assumption that CO2 from all other sources is static. This makes no sense if one considers that oceans contain some 50 times more CO2 that the atmosphere and that, if the oceans are warming as is claimed, they would be releasing huge quantities of CO2 because CO2 is more soluble in cold water.
      • And according to Henry's Law there would be continual adjustments between the CO2 levels in the atmosphere and the ocean.
      • If the extra CO2 for the past 100 years all came from humans, where did the extra CO2 in past eras come from - and how do we know?
      • The increase is not just due to human industrial activity, but also to enhanced vegetative processes and ocean outgassing as the top ocean warms. The above statement is simplistic as many processes are correlated with an increase in CO2.
    • It is accepted that much of the recent extra CO2 probably comes from human activities but the CSIRO evidence does not seem to support the implied certainty.
    • CSIRO Graph: CO2 Sinks
      • [img: Point_3.4-Graph.jpg]
        • These graphs are estimates not empirical evidence.
      • Vegetation may have consumed something on the order of 38GtCpa more in 1850 than today. [link]
      • The graph does not include the fixing of carbon dioxide by carbonate formation of carbonate secreting organisms. This is huge, and on the geological scale CO2 comes from volcanoes, and is fixed into limestone.
      • These ā€˜carbonate factories’ show that carbon dioxide is vital for the production of carbonate sands and ultimately limestone, and of course for the formation of the past and presents coasts. In the big geochemical picture carbon dioxide originates from volcanic eruptions and is fixed by limestone formation. Trying to reduce the carbon dioxide content of the ocean by reducing emissions by human activities is not only futile, but if it could be done it would have harmful consequences on all the carbonate fixing animals and plants in the ocean, and ultimately on the shape of the continent. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, V. 4, No. 3, September 2016.
      • 3.4.1 In recent decades, nature has absorbed more CO2 than it has emitted, so natural sources cannot explain the observed increase in the atmosphere.
        • This opinion is not "empirical evidence". The behaviour of natural sources and sinks is probably not well enough understood to support this opinion.
    • These estimates of CO2 sinks are not empirical evidence and will more likely be revised as more data comes in from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 satellite system.
      • [img: Point2OCO_map.jpg] Source: NASA
      • The OCO-2 satellite shows that CO2 is not uniformly distributed around the world. There seems to have been no updated visualizations of this data for 2 years.
      • The OCO-2 data sometimes suggests that the heaviest concentration of CO2 are over rain-forests and not over industrial areas.
      • The number of fixed CO2 stations is probably far less than the number of temperature stations.
      • Deriving an average CO2 concentration for the whole world may be as controversial as the temperature average.
    • CSIRO Graph - Model temperatures with various forcings (moved to Climate Models)
      • This graph and explanation seems unrelated to the source of extra atmospheric CO2. It has been moved to Climate Models and reviewed there.
    • But is has been stated ......
      • While the added growth in the greening earth – forests, crops etc is no doubt a good sink of CO2, measurements show conclusively that they do not account for the whole increase.
      • Also, while the warming of the earth and other sources continue to contribute to an increase, the fact that billions of tonnes of fossil fuel have been burnt over the years and must contribute to the growth in greenhouse gases, cannot be ignored nor dismissed.
      • There is more CO2 coming into the system than accounted for by the increase of CO2 observed in the system. Some of this is assimilated by ocean processes. Some of this is assimilated by soil processes (producing soil carbonates and calcrete. Some of this is assimilated by plant life which has the extensively documented tendency to vary CO2 uptake with availability.
  • Accepted that much of the extra CO2 could come from humans.
  • CSIRO The additional carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by human activities hasĀ enhanced the greenhouse effect: less energy is leaving the top of the atmosphere inĀ the wavelengths absorbed by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
    • Surely additional CO2 from ANY source would enhance the greenhouse effect.
    • 4.1 CSIRO Graph: Brightness vs Wavenumber
      • [img: Point_4-graph.jpg]
        • 4.1.A This graph does not show any enhancement or change.
    • The paper referenced above seems to show there was no significant change from 1970 to 1997.
      • This graph is the same as CSIRO's 4.1 but shows the 1970 data compared to the 1997 data.
      • The IRIS instrument was 1970 and the IMG instrument 1997. There is only the slightest change in methane and no significant change in CO2. [link]. This would seem be be empirical evidence that CO2 has no effect on brightness temperature. It is conceded that there were some issues with Harries 2001, so why was it referenced?
      • [img: Point_4.1.A-graph.jpg]
    • Water vapour is a greenhouse gas but not shown in these graphs. What is its effect?
      • Apparently even a two percent variation in atmospheric water vapor will equal the total amount of supposed greenhouse effect of all human CO2 production.
        • Decadal variations in atmospheric water vapor from [link].
        • [img: Point_4.C.A-graph.jpg]
  • No evidence has been provided for ANY reduction in energy leaving the top of the atmosphere.
  • CSIRO The earth has warmed.
    • Temperature has been much higher in geological timescales.
    • And the earth has cooled since the Warm Periods.
    • Temperature has been as high or higher in the last 5 interglacials.
      • And much colder for most of the last 450,000 years. [img: Point_5-Interglacials.jpg]
    • This interglacial appears fairly benign.
      • [img: Point5-LastInterglacial.jpg]
    • Still cooler than the Warm Periods.
      • [img: Point5-Warmperiods-b.jpg] Greenland GISP2 disagrees somewhat with Antarctica Law Dome which is of higher resolution.
    • But it is now warmer than the Little Ice Age.
      • [img: Point_5-LittleIceAge.jpg]
    • In the last century, temperature has lurched upward.
      • This data has been presented without raising the issue of "adjustments". [img: Point_5-LastCentury.jpg]
    • The satellite era has rises, falls and pauses.
      • The 2 big El Ninos are prominent. [img: Point_5-SatelliteEra.jpg]
    • Are the last 20, 50 or 100 years supposed to be unique in some way?
    • CSIRO Graph: Global Surface temperature vs Time 1900 - 2015 increasing 1°C per century
      • Surface temperature anomaly [img: Point5-Surfacetemp-bs.jpg] A higher resolution version of the original graph. Source NASA
        • What caused the cooling from 1880-1910 and from 1940-1980?
        • What are the datasets used here? Are we to be impressed by the organisations? An appeal to authority is a logical fallacy.
        • How much of this claimed 1 degC per century trend is cause by Urban Heat Island effect and Rutherglen style adjustments?
          • Subsequently McKitrick and Michaels (2007) concluded that about half the reported warming trend in global-average land surface air temperature in 1980–2002 resulted from local land-surface changes and faults in the observations. Schmidt (2009) undertook a quantitative analysis that supported AR4 conclusions that much of the reported correlation largely arose due to naturally occurring climate variability and model over-fitting and was not robust. Taking these factors into account, modified analyses by McKitrick (2010) and McKitrick and Nierenberg (2010) still yielded significant evidence for such contamination of the record. Temperature Data Quality
        • What caused the cooling from 1880-1910 and 1940-1980?
        • This graph shows organisations not datasets. Are we supposed to be impressed by the organisations? An appeal to authority is a logical fallacy.
    • CSIRO Australian temperatures 1910- increasing 1°C per century
      • Australian annual average temperatures [img: CSIROPresAust100yrtemps-b.jpg] A trend of 0.9°C per century has been stated. This graph was part of the CSIRO presentation but not specifically mentioned as part of the Empirical Evidence point. Source
      • What are the datasets used here?
      • 1880-1910 shows cooling. Why was this omitted? CSIRO says Australian land-based temperatures before 1910 are unreliable. Dr Marohasy asserts they were reliable.
      • The 1940-1980 cooling shown on the previous CSIRO graph has been changed to a warming trend.
    • Independent reanalysis shows only 0.5°C per century, part of cycle, invalid adjustments.
      • Recalculation of the CSIRO graph into temperature maximums [img: Point_5-Jen-Fig3.jpg] Maximum temperature is generally considered a better measure of regional temp variability and this allows better comparison with the following graph.
      • Independent reanalysis showing temperature maximums [img: Point_5-Jen-Fig4b.jpg] A trend of 0.44°C per century is indicated. The reanalysis tried to be free of arbitrary adjustments and the trend per century was reduced from 0.88°C to 0.44°C. The methodology of the reanalysis is explained in the attachment to this point.
      • Independent reanalysis showing average afternoon temperature [img: Jennifer_Reconstruction-c.jpg] This graph covers a sufficiently large time period for the concept of a "trend" to be less useful than that of a "cycle".
      • Independent examination of adjustments applied to BoM data. [img: Point_5-Rutherglen.jpg] Undefended adjustments have converted no trend into a 2.1°C per century warming trend. The letter requesting BoM to defend their adjustments is an attachment to this point. Source site
    • CSIRO Graph Lower troposphere temperatures 1960 - 2015 radiosondes 1.3°C per century
    • CSIRO Graph: Ocean Heat Content increasing since 1975
    • Ocean heat content and temperatures seem unalarming
      • The top two kilometers of the ocean are warming at 0.2°C per century, a fifth of the recent surface rate. [Link]
      • Southern ocean sea surface temperature is cooling.
        • [img: Point5-SurfacetempsWarming.jpg] Furthermore, Jones et al. (2016) have found that surfaces temperatures for the Southern Ocean – which surrounds the entire Antarctic continent – have dropped significantly since the late 1970s, as they show in the graph from their paper. Jones et al 2016
      • Ocean Heat Content is at the lowest for 8,000 years.
        • [img: Point5-PacificHeatContent.jpg] <A href="http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~blinsley/Dr.B.KLinsley/Indonesia&PacificIntermediateWater_files/Rosenthal.Linsley.Oppo%202013%20Pac.Ocean.Heat.pdf">Rosenthal et al., 2013
        • ā€œWe show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1°C and 1.5°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades.ā€
  • The earth has warmed since the Little Ice Age but is still cooler than the Roman Warm Period and much cooler than the Holocene Thermal Maximum
  • End of empirical evidence with no case for dangerous global warming.
    • Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas.
    • whose concentrations in the atmosphere have increased.
    • possibly mostly from human activities
    • but without leaving any evidence of a SIGNIFICANTLY increased greenhouse effect.
    • The earth has warmed since the Little Ice Age, mostly before human CO2 emissions.
    • and it is still cooler than the thriving Roman Warm Period.
    • and CSIRO does not assert that danger is looming. When asked specifically about the danger: "That is not our responsibility".
      • Quote from discussion with CSIRO:
        • Malcolm Roberts (MR): asked: What in the 2000-year climate record indicates impending danger? CSIRO said they had not said anything about danger. MR: No, but we’re asking a question. Is there anything that indicates impending danger? CSIRO said that it depends on the definition of danger......danger can be quite an emotive word..... interpreting whether there is danger is ultimately a question for the people of Australia to decide. MR: Well, Greg Hunt – and I’m looking at Alex here, not for an explanation but just to emphasise that Greg Hunt in particular has said that his climate policies rely entirely on the CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and the IPCC. And so he’s saying, we will end up in danger unless we do something to cut the use of hydrocarbon fuels. And so, if he relies upon the CSIRO’s advice, is that where he’s getting his imminent danger from? CSIRO said that the interpretation of danger is up to the Australian public, and the Minister MR: So, the Minister has drawn those conclusions. ..... independent of the CSIRO. You’ve presented him with the temperature changes and the causal analysis and he’s gone: Oh my God, we’ve got to do something. CSIRO said it's probably best to ask the Minister if he’s done that. MR: Okay. Ministerial Adviser indicated that the Minister would be happy to have a conversation about that and advised that’s definitely a conversation for the Minister not for the CSIRO. MR: Sure. Okay. So, the CSIRO just presents the data and leaves the policy decisions to the Ministers? CSIRO confirmed that is correct.
  • CSIRO Observed changes in the climate system are consistent with an enhanced greenhouseĀ effect. Other forcings (e.g. volcanoes, the sun, internal variability) cannot explain theĀ magnitude, timing and distribution of observed trends.
    • Here are the observed changes in the climate system.
      • The CO2 and temperature swings since -400,000 BC show they are related, with temperature sometimes leading the falls.
        • The full Vostok data from which the ups and downs have been extracted. [img: Vostok_overall.jpg]
        • Vostok peak at 410000 BP [img: Vostok420000up.jpg] The minor valley at -390,000 BC shows CO2 rising first.
        • Vostok valley at -350,000 BC. [img: Vostok_350000.jpg] CO2 and Temperature are moving together.
        • Vostok peak at -320,000 BC [img: Vostok_320000.jpg] Perhaps CO2 slightly leading temperature.
        • Vostok valley at -250,000 BC [img: Vostok_250000.jpg] Generally CO2 and temperature in sync. Perhaps temperature leads slightly in the falls.
        • Vostok peak at -235,000 BC [img: Vostok_235000.jpg] Temperature leading on the fall. In sync elsewhere.
        • Vostok peak at -127,000 BC [img: Vostok_150000.jpg] Temperature leads the fall but in sync elsewhere.
        • Vostok peak at -9,000 BC [img: Vostok_9000.jpg] CO2 and temperature generally in sync.
      • CO2 and temperature swings in the later GISP2 data show some correlation but some divergence.
        • GISP2 swings at 45,000 BC [img: GISP2_45000.jpg] Some big swing in CO2 and temperature but not well correlated.
        • GISP2 swings at 16,000 BC [img: GISP2_16000.jpg] Some correlation but one period of obvious divergence.
      • CO2 and temperature swings from EPICA Dome C show some correlation and some divergence.
        • [img: EPICA_13000.jpg]
        • [img: EPICA_5000.jpg] Fairly constant temperature but steadily rising CO2.
      • CO2 and temperature swings from Law Dome show more divergence than correlation.
        • [img: LawDome_1800-b.jpg] The graph was stopped at 1800 before the rapid rise of CO2, possibly due to human emissions. Sampling intervals: CO2 8 years, Temp 4 years
      • CO2 and temperature swings post 1850 show some correlation and some divergence.
        • [img: Post_1850.jpg] There are two 30 year periods of falling temperature while CO2 is rising. For the last 50 years both are rising together. The temperature data may include the Rutherglen adjustments.
      • CO2 and temperature swings in the satellite age show little short term correlation.
        • [img: Satellite_age.jpg] The 2 big El Nino peaks are visible. On a monthly or annual scale, CO2 and temperature seem unrelated.
      • El Nino temperatures correlate well with satellite temperatures.
    • While there is strong correlation between CO2 and temperature when looking at the four last ice ages, CO2 does not appear to lead temperature. Looking at shorter timescales the correlation disappears and in the short satellite age data there appears to be no correlation with any greenhouse effect, enhanced or otherwise.
    • "Consistent with" is hardly empirical evidence. The ability to explain future empirical data is the mark of a successful model not the reverse.
      • Being "consistent with" is a VERY long way away from the warming of the globe being "caused by" an Enhanced Green House Effect. Neither a peer reviewed article nor other paper or research report, appears to have been presented to the community or cited in five different IPCC Reports from FAR to AR5, which demonstrates in terms of the physics of carbon dioxide in gases, how an increase in the concentration of this gas in the atmosphere will cause further global warming.
    • CSIRO accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of it's climate models
      • [CSIRO standard disclaimer] This report relates to climate change scenarios based on computer modelling. Models involve simplifications of the real world that are not fully understood. Accordingly, no responsibility is accepted by the CSIRO for the accuracy of forecasts or predictions inferred from this report or for any person’s interpretations, deductions, conclusions, or actions in reliance of this report.
      • Individual ministerial responsibility is a constitutional convention in governments using the Westminster System that a cabinet minister bears the ultimate responsibility for the actions of their ministry or department. The principle is considered essential, as it is seen to guarantee that an elected official is answerable for every single government decision. It is also important to motivate ministers to closely scrutinize the activities within their departments. Source
      • Who is responsible for the quality of the science supporting the spending of tens of billions of dollars? CSIRO says not us, is it then Minister Hunt or the individual report authors?
    • CSIRO For example, enhanced greenhouse forcing causes warming of the lower atmosphere and cooling of the upper atmosphere, as observed. Increases in solar energy reaching the earth would warm both the upper and lower atmosphere.
    • This point seems to be a variation of Point 4 and no empirical evidence has been advanced to support either.
    • Adding more CO2 can have very little direct effect on temperature
      • The Warming Effect of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide [img: Archibald_CO2plot-b.jpg] Source: David Archibald
      • Using the MODTRANS facility maintained by the University of Chicago, the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide content and increase in average global atmospheric temperature is shown in this graph.
      • The effect of carbon dioxide on temperature is logarithmic and thus climate sensitivity decreases with increasing concentration. The first 20 ppm of carbon dioxide has a greater temperature effect than the next 400 ppm. The rate of annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the last 30 years has averaged 1.7 ppm.
      • From the current level of 380 ppm, it is projected to rise to 420 ppm by 2030. The projected 40 ppm increase reduces emission from the stratosphere to space from 279.6 watts/m2 to 279.2 watts/m2.
      • The temperature values on the Y axis depend on the assumed value of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). This graph was produced with a low value of ECS but doubling the assumed ECS to an IPCC value will make no difference to the conclusion that "Adding more CO2 has very little direct effect on temperature".
      • Using the temperature response demonstrated by Idso (1998) of 0.1 °C per watt/m2, this difference of 0.4 watts/m2 equates to an increase in atmospheric temperature of 0.04°C (<0.1 °C). Increasing the carbon dioxide content by a further 200 ppm to 620 ppm, projected by 2150, results in a further 0.16°C increase in atmospheric temperature.
      • Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased the temperature of the atmosphere by 0.1°.
    • CSIRO Other forcings such as volcanoes cannot explain the magnitude, timing and distribution of observed trends
      • The importance of juvenile (erupted and passively emitted) volcanic CO2 is due to the fact that carbon, and particularly carbon dioxide has a strong presence in mantle fluids, so much so that it is a more abundant volcanic gas than SO2 (Wilson, p. 181; Perfit et al., 1980). According to Symonds et al. (1994) CO2 is the second most abundantly emitted volcanic gas next to steam. Although you might imagine that there is no air in the mantle, the chemical conditions favour oxidation, and shortages of oxygen ions are rare enough to ensure a strong presence of CO2 (Schneider & Eggler, 1986). Oxidation of subducted carbon sources such as kerogen, coal, petroleum, oil shales, carbonaceous shales, carbonates, etc. into CO2 and H2O makes volcanic CO2 quite variable in back arc and continental margin volcanoes, where these volatile gases can be surprisingly abundant (eg. Vulcano & Mount Etna). Subduction isn't the only way CO2 enters magma. At continental rift zones, where an entire continent is being pulled apart by divergent mantle convection, magma rising to fill the rift is enriched in CO2 from deep mantle sources (Wilson, 1989, p. 333). Oldoinyo Lengai is an example of a continental rift zone volcano, which has above average CO2 outgassing at 2.64 megatons of CO2 or 720 KtC per annum (Koepenick et al., 1996).
      • If volcanoes produce more CO2 than industry when they are not erupting, then variations in volcanic activity may go a long way towards explaining the present rise in CO2. [link]
    • Volcanoes may be able to explain some of the last 200 years of warming.
    • CSIRO Other forcings such as the sun cannot explain the magnitude, timing and distribution of observed trends
    • Total solar irradiance correlates better with temperature than CO2 does.
      • [img: TSICO2Temp.jpg]
        • Sources [img: TSICO2Temp-Sources.jpg]
    • The sun may be more important than first thought.
      • There is significant correlation between solar activity and earth climate but Total Solar Ir-radiance changes don't seem to be sufficient. However Svensmark's theory and the CERN CLOUD experiment are indicating plausible explanations.
      • As the current abnormal solar cycle unfolds, more empirical evidence concerning the sun may emerge.
      • Over geological times the Earth has had even warmer periods despite the Sun’s slighter reduced irradiance (which is increasing by approx. 1% every 100 million years).
      • The CSIRO promotes the simplistic view that since solar radiation reaching the Earth is fairly constant the sun is not the reason for recent global warming. Under this view the present warming must be due to forces within the earth and increasing CO2 levels is made the culprit. Despite this argument, there is a dawning realisation among scientists that the sun can cause short term climate change in more complex ways, not fully understood;
      • The CSIRO presentation ignores the sun and presumes it is a steady light globe in the sky. The CSIRO would be well aware of literature on this topic from scientific institutions all over the world. For example, some scientists see quick changes in the sun’s magnetic field controlling cosmic radiation reaching earth and in turn influencing cloud formation that in turn can vary temperature. Indeed, our understanding of the sun’s effect on climate is poor. Seizing upon the rise of CO2 as an explanation for warming is making the concurrence of events a proof of their relationship, when concurrence of two items in a complex non-linear system is no proof at all. And it should be noted from Section A above there is not a clear concurrence between them anyway!
      • It should also be noted that in its presentation, the CSIRO argues that if solar radiation increases there should be rises in temperature in the upper troposphere. That is by no means proven. Increased SW radiation will have negligible temperature effect as it passes through the atmosphere and what is critical is what happens when extra LW radiation is given out at the Earth’s surface. It can easily be argued that increases in water moisture and RH can lead to more absorption in the lower troposphere and there will be no evidence of extra warming in the upper troposphere or stratosphere.
      • Solar variations have strong correlation with well recorded eras like the little ice age when the Thames froze over in winter and much longer term with the approximately 100,000 year ice age cycle of the last million years. We have no good data on ancient ocean currents, but the powerful impact on climate of things like the Gulf Stream is obvious, as are the shorter time frame El Nino, Indian Ocean dipole etc. With most of the heat stored in the sea, any hypothesis that does not feature heat transfers in the oceans is unlikely to provide facts-based answers.
      • Low solar activity means more Central European floods
        • Low solar activity means more Central European floods [img: Point_6-3-Short.jpg]
        • [img: Point_6-3Long.jpg]
        • Czymzik, M., Muscheler, R. and Brauer, A. 2016. Solar modulation of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on inter-annual to multi-centennial timescales. Climate of the Past 12: 799-805.
    • CSIRO Other forcings such as internal variability cannot explain the magnitude, timing and distribution of observed trends
      • How can long term ocean current effects be modeled when there is little historical data to tune the models?
      • The big ENSO swings at 1600 correlate with a big CO2 drop.
        • [img: ENSOCO21300.jpg] Truncated at 1800 to avoid the big CO2 increase after that.
    • Recent temperatures are not unprecedented and credible models should be able to predict them.
      • It has been hotter in the past, see responses to The Earth Has Warmed in this document.
      • 1 degree per century warming is not unprecedented
        • It has been hotter in the past and warmed at 1°C per century in the past when CO2 was below 300ppm, so how can internal variability be ruled out? [img: Point6-41DegPerC.jpg] Every possible 100 year sequence was examined with linear regression to determine it's trend in degC per century. The trends were collected in the bins indicated by the table headings. Data after 1900 was excluded to leave only the precedents. 1 degC per century is not unprecedented. The trend for the current century may well turn out to be more like 0.5 degC per century when all the Rutherglen type adjustments are removed, in which case the precedents increase.
        • [img: Point6-41DegPerC-LawDome.jpg] 8.4% of Law Dome century trends are 1 degC per century or greater. 41 in total.
      • Pacific Ocean temperatures have been warmer for most of the last 8,000 years.
        • While recent temperatures are higher than say 60 years ago, 8000 years ago temperate rainforests in Australia were well south of Sydney and the summer and winter minimums were 5°C higher while the winter and summer maximums were around 2°C higher. The Medieval Warm Period is well mapped in the Northern Hemisphere between 50°N and 70°N and the equivalent position in the Southern Hemisphere is south of South Africa, Australia and South America.
        • [img: Point_6-PacificOcean.jpg]
        • However, in 2013, Professor Yair Rosenthal from Columbia University and others (using oxygen isotope ratios in benthic forms that live on the deep ocean floor) showed that the Deep Water Ocean temperature of the Pacific Floor during the Medieval Warm period was 0.9°C warmer than today; a situation impossible unless the ocean temperature south of the Southern Convergence was higher at that time. This provided clear evidence that modern temperatures are not unprecedented and that scary statements about modern temperatures are ill-informed.
    • CSIRO Models can reproduce the record of global averaged temperature if we include the effects of increased greenhouse gas forcing, but cannot do so with natural forcings alone.
      • [img: Point_3.5-Graph.jpg]
    • Only the Russian model INMCM4.0 can reproduce the record of global averaged temperatures. Other models are hopeless.
      • [img: Point6-ModelComparison.jpg] The Russian model INMCM4.0 is the only one whose predictions match observations. Why should the failing models be continually funded? Don't the funding agencies understand the scientific method?
    • Climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends
      • Jones et al 2016 Nature From the abstract: With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.
    • Are the climate models trustworthy?
      • Models overestimate the warming of the troposphere.
        • Satellite measurements of the troposphere (where the greenhouse effect occurs) show that the models overestimate warming outside the 95% confidence bound. This indicates that models are of no value as a tool in climate studies.
        • [img: SGGlobalMeanTLTAnomaly.jpg] Source
      • Models fail to account for the recent pause in global warming.
        • The lack of change in temperature for early 2000s is real.
          • It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims. [img: Point6Hiatus-Graph.jpg] Source: Nature
          • John C. Fyfe, Gerald A. Meehl, Matthew H. England, Michael E. Mann, Benjamin D. Santer, Gregory M. Flato, Ed Hawkins, Nathan P. Gillett, Shang-Ping Xie, Yu Kosaka & Neil C. Swart This is a significant document as some of the authors are IPCC stalwarts.
        • The models have not reproduced the global average temperature changes since 1850 with the various pause warm cycles as it seems that they were tuned to the 1975-1998 period and then significantly failed as temperature and CO2 failed to track each other in the 1998-2016 period.
        • The debate on the predicted hotspot in the tropical troposphere still rages and its existence has not been proven. Dr Steven Japar who was involved in the 1995 and 2001 reports resigned from the UN IPCC on the basis that 'temperature measurements show the hot zone (i.e. a zone predicted by the models in the mid-troposphere) is non-existent. This is more than sufficient to invalidate global climate models and projections made by them"
      • The earth's chaotic climate may never be predictable. Some reflections on NCAR’s Large Ensemble.
      • When have the climate models successfully predicted some future event?
      • Are any climate models funded by organisations without a committment to CAGW?
      • What independent process has judged the climate models fit to justify the enormous spending on global warming?
      • Are the climate scientists trustworthy?
        • Is ex-CSIRO Professor Mark Howden a trustworthy scientist or political activist?
          • With the recent extreme storm events in South Australia and subsequent blackout, Australia's energy security has been thrown into sharp relief. An increasing number of extreme weather events such as this are expected as a result of climate change. The crisis highlights that Australia needs to up the ante in addressing climate related risk across all sectors of our society.

            Meanwhile, September ended the 16-month streak of record warm monthly global temperatures. But September also demonstrated the highest average global land temperatures ever recorded for the month and global average temperatures for the first nine months of 2016 break all previous records.

            Following last year's Paris Climate Agreement, the next round of UN climate change negotiations, COP 22, kick off in Marrakesh on 7 November. We'll be running a public lecture to discuss implementation of the Agreement in the week of 22nd November - stay tuned for more details.

            Regards

            Professor Mark Howden Director, Climate Change Institute

        • Is Mark Stafford-Smith a trustworthy scientist?
          • Planet Under Pressure Declaration When the conference ended, Dr Stafford-Smith co-drafted with a Dr Lidia Brito the conference’s ā€œDeclarationā€. As one breathless environment reporter from the New York Times introduced it, humanity’s anti-green obtuseness could hurt the earth as badly as ā€œmeteoric collisionsā€.[13] The key tract from the Smith/Brito manifesto is:

            ā€œFundamental reorientation and restructuring of national and international institutions is required to overcome barriers to progress and to move to effective Earth-system governance…Current understanding supports the creation of a Sustainable Development Council within the UN system to integrate social, economic and environmental policy at the global level.ā€ [14] [Link]

        • Did CSIRO's attendance at Planet under pressure help its trustworthy image?
  • CSIRO has not yet provided any evidence that their climate models can predict the future climate with such certainty that extraordinarily large sums should be spent on mitigating climate change rather than addressing other serious issues.
  • Points being removed
    • Ice core data implies that some temperature rises precede CO2 rises.
      • Ice core data shows historical swings much larger than recent swings (which are within the noise of the historical record) , and they show that CO2 has lagged temperature over long periods in the recent ice ages. There is also evidence that the annual swings in CO2 temperature may be related to the Northern Hemisphere spring temperatures leading to an increase in CO2. However, we also admit that during the upward trend in CO2 since the middle of the 19th Century CO2 can also lead temperature. This is typical of a non-linear system where causes and effects can reverse their roles. pfk: "annual swings in CO2 temperature may be related to the northern . . " - "CO2 and temperature" ?
      • [img: SG_4.jpg] Ice cores show a 100PPM shift in CO2 with a 10C increase in temperature with an 800 year lag. Over the past century we have seen a 100PPM increase in CO2 with a claimed shift of 1C in temperature. The recent dT/dCO2 is 10X higher than the historical record and 700 years too early, so you can't blame the increase in CO2 on rising temperatures.Ƃ It undercuts our other arguments to go that direction, and there is really no upside to that argument.
      • [img: SG_4.jpg] Ice cores show a 100PPM shift in CO2 with a 10C increase in temperature with an 800 year lag. Over the past century we have seen a 100PPM increase in CO2 with a claimed shift of 1C in temperature. The recent dT/dCO2 is 10X higher than the historical record and 700 years too early, so we can't blame the increase in CO2 on rising temperatures but at times in this non-linear system temperature will also lead CO2. Their roles as cause and effect can swap.
    • [img: Howtoexpand.jpg]
Loading page ...

Print options

Expand or collapse list branches

Want checkboxes? Change the list style

List style:

Display or hide list attributes

x

Expand & collapse ec

Import im

Word count wc

Current selection
Words: #{js-wc-sel}
Characters with spaces: #{js-cc-space-sel}
Characters without spaces: #{js-cc-sel}
The whole list
Words: #{js-wc}
Characters with spaces: #{js-cc-space}
Characters without spaces: #{js-cc}

List view options oo

Any email, forwarded to this address, will appear in beginning of this list.

Send an email to yourself and add the sender to Contacts for future use.

  • The email subject becomes the list item's text.
  • The email body becomes the list item's note.
  • All attachments from the email are attached to the list item (PRO only).
  • In the subject, you can also add #tags, ^due dates, and @assignees with Checkvist's smart syntax.

You can also set up voice integration on mobile devices